Decision—thinking is not unlike poker—it often matters not only what you think, but also what others think you think what you think they think you think. The mental process(过程) is similar. Naturally, this card game has often been of considerable interest to people who are, by any standards, good thinkers.

    The great mathematician John von Neumann was one of the founders of game theory. In particular, he showed that all games fall into two classes; there are what he called games of 'perfect information', games like chess where the players can't hide anything or play tricks; they don't win by chance, but by means of logic and skills. Then there are games of 'imperfect information', like poker, in which it is impossible to know in advance that one course of action is better than another.

    One mistaken idea about business is that it can be treated as a game of perfect information. Quite the reverse Business, life itself are games which we must normally play with very imperfect information. Business decisions are often made with many unknown and unknowable factors(因素), best poker players. But few business people find it comfortable to admit that they are taking a chance, and many still prefer to believe that they are playing chess, not poker.

    It was an autumn morning shortly after my husband and I moved into our first house. Our children were upstairs unpacking, and I was looking out of the window at my father moving around mysteriously on the front lawn. “What are you doing out there?” I called to him.

    He looked up, smiling. “I'm making you a surprise.” I thought it could be just about anything. When we were kids, he always created something surprising for us. Today, however, Dad would say no more, and caught up in the busyness of our new life, I eventually forgot about his surprise.

    Until one gloomy day the next March when I glanced out of the window, I saw a dot of blue across the yard. I headed outside for a closer look. They were crocuses (番红花）throughout the front lawn — blue, yellow and my favorite pink, with little faces moving up and down in the cold wind. I remembered the things Dad secretly planted last autumn. He knew how the darkness and dullness of winter always got me down. What could have been more perfectly timely to my needs?

    My father's crocuses bloomed (开花） each spring for the next five seasons, always bringing the same assurance： Hard times are almost over. Hold on, keep going, and light is coming soon.

    Then a spring came with only half the usual blooms and the next spring there were none. I missed the crocuses, so I would ask Dad to come over and plant new bulbs. But I never did. He died suddenly one October day. My family were in deep sorrow, leaning on our faith.

    On a spring afternoon four years later, I was driving back when I felt depressed. It was Dad's birthday, and I found myself thinking about him. This was not unusual — my family often talked about him, remembering how he lived up to his faith. Suddenly I slowed as I turned into our driveway. I stopped and stared at the lawn. There on the muddy grass with small piles of melting snow, bravely waving in the wind, was one pink crocus.

    How could a flower bloom from a bulb more than 18 years ago, one that hadn't bloomed in over a decade? But there was the crocus. Tears filled my eyes as I realized its significance.

    Hold on, keep going, and light is coming soon. The pink crocus bloomed for only a day, but it built my faith for a lifetime.

    Planning a visit to the UK? Here we help with ways to cut your costs.

    AVOID BIG EVENTS Big sporting events, concerts and exhibitions can increase the cost of accommodation and make it harder to find a room. A standard double room at the Thistle Brighton on the final Friday of the Brighton Comedy Festival (19 Oct.) cost £169.15 at Booking.com. A week later, the same room cost £l18.15.

    If you can be flexible and want to know dates to avoid-or you're looking for a big event to pass your time—check out sites such as Whatsonwhen.com, which allow you to search for events in the UK by city, date and category.

    STAY AWAY FROM THE STATION If traveling to your destination by train, you may want to find a good base close to the station, but you could end up paying more for the sake of convenience at the start of your holiday.

    Don't be too choosy about the part of town you stay in. Booking two months in advance, the cheapest room at Travelodge's Central Euston hotel in London for Saturday 22 September was £95.95. A room just a tube journey away at its Covent Garden hotel was £75.75. And at Farringdon, a double room cost just £62.95.

    GET ON A BIKE London's 'Boris bikes' have attracted the most attention but other cities also have similar programmes that let you rent a bicycle and explore at your own pace, saving you on public transport or car parking costs.

    Among the smaller cities with their own programmes are Newcastle (casual members pay around £1.50 for two hours) and Cardiff (free for up to 30 minutes, or £5 per day).

    In 2009 a new flu virus was discovered. Combining elements of the viruses that cause bird flu and swine flu, this new virus, named H1N1, spread quickly. Within weeks, public health agencies around the world feared a terrible pandemic (流行病) was under way. Some commentators warned of an outbreak on the scale of the 1918 Spanish flu. Worse, no vaccine(疫苗) was readily available. The only hope public health authorities had was to slow its spread. But to do that, they needed to know where it already was.

    In the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) required that doctors inform them of new flu cases. Yet the picture of the pandemic that showed up was always a week or two out of date. People might feel sick for days but wait before consulting a doctor. Relaying the information back to the central organizations took time, and the CDC only figured out the numbers once a week. With a rapidly spreading disease, a two-week lag is an eternity. This delay completely blinded public health agencies at the most urgent moments.

    Few weeks before the H1N1 virus made headlines, engineers at the Internet giant Google published a paper in Nature. It got experts' attention but was overlooked. The authors explained how Google could "predict" the spread of the winter flu, not just nationally, but down to specific regions and even states. Since Google receives more than three billion search queries every day and saves them all, it had plenty of data to work with.

    Google took the 50 million most common search terms that Americans type and compared the list with CDC data on the spread of seasonal flu between 2003 and 2008. The idea was to identify areas affected by the flu virus by what people searched for on the Internet. Others had tried to do this with Internet search terms, but no one else had as much data-processing power, as Google.

    While the Googles guessed that the searches might be aimed at getting flu information—typing phrases like "medicine for cough and fever"—that wasn't the point: they didn't know, and they designed a system that didn't care. All their system did was look for correlations(相关性) between the frequency of certain search queries and the spread of the flu over time and space. In total, they processed 450 million different mathematical models in order to test the search terms, comparing their predictions against actual flu cases from the CDC in 2007 and 2008. And their software found a combination of 45 search terms that had a strong correlation between their prediction and the official figures nationwide. Like the CDC, they could tell where the flu had spread, but unlike the CDC they could tell it in near real time, not a week or two after the fact.

    Thus, when the H1N1 crisis struck in 2009, Google's system proved to be a more useful and timely indicator than government statistics with their natural reporting lags. Public health officials were armed with valuable information.

    Strikingly, Google's method is built on "big data"—the ability of society to handle information in new ways to produce useful insights or goods and services of significant value. However,   ▲  . For example, in 2012 it identified a sudden rise in flu cases, but overstated the amount, perhaps because of too much media attention about the flu. Yet what is clear is that the next time a pandemic comes around, the world will have a better tool to predict and thus prevent its spread.

Teaching Poetry

    No poem should ever be discussed or "analyzed", until it has been read aloud by someone, teacher or student. Better still, perhaps, is the practice of reading it twice, once at the beginning of the discussion and once at the end, so the sound of the poem is the last thing one hears of it.

    All discussions of poetry are, in fact, preparations for reading it aloud, and the reading of the poem is, finally, the most telling "interpretation" of it, suggesting tone, rhythm, and meaning all at once. Hearing a poet read the work in his or her own voice, on records or on film, is obviously a special reward. But even those aids to teaching can not replace the student and teacher reading it or, best of all, reciting it.

    I have come to think, in fact, that time spent reading a poem aloud is much more important than "analysing" it, if there isn't time for both. I think one of our goals as teachers of English is to have students love poetry. Poetry is "a criticism of life", and "a heightening of lief". It is "an approach to the truth of feeling", and it "can save your life". It also deserves a place in the teaching of language and literature more central than it presently occupies.

    I am not saying that every English teacher must teach poetry. Those who don't like it should not be forced to communicate this to anyone else. But those who do teach poetry must keep in mind a few things about its essential nature, about its sound as well as its sense, and they must make room in the classroom for hearing poetry as well as thinking about it.

The urgency and importance of Covid-19 over (he past year have driven almost everything else from most leaders5 minds. But since the vaccine is kicking in, Britain's government is once again beginning to think about the things that will matter later. Next week, it is expected to publish a 'plan for growth" to boost productivity, with innovation at its centre.

The world may be on the point of a technological boom with life sciences, at which Britain excels. Innovation is crucial to productivity, but on this front Britain's performance has lagged behind its competitors' in recent years. Its low spending on Research and Development (R&D) argues for a boost. Those who attributed the financial failure in the 1970s to the insufficiency of research funds may regard this as a threat to economic growth. Promoting innovation can quickly (um into an exercise in picking winners - or, as is more often the case, losers.

A second danger is that policy agendas get mixed up. The government has promised to "level up" poorer areas of the country, so deprived towns arc campaigning for more money for their universities. But trying to boost innovation by sending money to weak institutions is likely to make our leading universities lose their advantages, thus producing average ideas that could have been remarkable. Britain's research-funding system has always been elitist(精英主义的). It should stay that way.

The government's first move in boosting innovation was the announcement of a plan for an Advanced Research and Invention Agency (ARIA). ARlA's purpose is to fund high-risk, high-reward research. But money is not all that mailers. The successful translation of life science research into treatments during the pandemic suggests some inexpensive measures that can also make a difference.

One is to speed up governmental processes. The rapidity with which Britain's medical regulator moved during the pandemic is one reason why the vaccine rollout is racing through the population. Urgency is not unique lo pandemics. Getting things done quickly can make an investment worthwhile and determine where a businessman chooses as a base.

Another useful measure the government should use is its unique ability to overcome barriers. At the beginning of the pandemic. Covid-19 researchers were unable to gain access to different strands of health service data. The government eased restrictions on existing data and allowed researchers to ask people who had tested positive tor Covid-19 to join trials. Both were crucial to the effort.

A last principle is the value of connections between the government and the private sector. Kate Bingham, a venture capitalist who led the vaccine-purchase effort, understood how to deal with drug companies. Many of the civil servants working with her had commercial experience. The governments closeness to business during the pandemic has been criticized. But without it, the vaccine effort would not have succeeded.

Innovation took human beings from caves to computers. Good education, a welcoming immigration policy and a friendly business environment will do most to tend it. But a new sensible principles can help keep the flame burning.