El Nifio, a Spanish term for “the Christ child", was named by South American fishermen who noticed that the global weather pattern, which happens every two to seven years, reduced the amount of fishes caught around Christmas. El Nifio sees warm water, collected over several years in the western Pacific, flow back eastwards when winds that normally blow westwards weaken, or sometimes the other way round.

        The weather effects, both good and bad, are felt in many places. Rich countries gain more from powerful Nifio, on balance, than they lose. A study found that a strong Nifio in 1997 helped American's economy grow by $15 billion, partly because of better agricultural harvest, farmers in the Midwest gained from extra rain. The total rise in agricultural incomes in rich countries is greater than the fall in poor ones.

          But in Indonesia extremely dry forests are in flames. A multi-year drought (干旱）in south-east Brazil is becoming worse. Though heavy rains brought about by El Nino may relieve the drought in California, they are likely to cause surface flooding and other disasters.

The most recent powerful Nino, in 1997-98, killed around 21,000 people and caused damage worth $36 billion around the globe. But such Ninos come with months of warning, and so much is known about how they happen that governments can prepare. According to the Overseas Development Institute(ODI), however, just 12% of disaster-relief funding in the past two decades has gone on reducing risks in advance, rather than recovery and rebuilding afterwards.This is despite evidence that a dollar spent on risk-reduction saves at least two on reconstruction.

Simple improvements to infrastructure (基础设施）can reduce the spread of disease. Better sewers (下水道）make it less likely that heavy rain is followed by an outbreak of the disease of bad stomach. Stronger bridges mean villages are less likely to be left without food and medicine after floods. According to a paper in 2011 by Mr. Hsiang and co-authors, civil conflict is related to El Nino's harmful effects—and the poorer the country, the stronger the link. Though the relationship may not be causal, helping divided communities to prepare for disasters would at least reduce the risk that those disasters are followed by killing and wounding people. Since the poorest are least likely to make up for their losses from disasters linked to El Nino, reducing their losses needs to be the priority.

阅读理解

    Is there link between humans and climate change or not? This question was first studied in the early 1900s. Since then, many scientists have thought that our actions do make a difference. In 1997, the Kyoto Protocol explained our role in the Earth's changing atmosphere and set international limits for gas emissions(排放) from 2008 to 2012. Some countries have decided to continue these reductions until 2020. More recently, the Paris Agreement, stuck by nearly 200 countries, also aims to limit global warming. But just now how much warmer it will get depends on how deeply countries cut carbon emissions.

    If you frequently travel for business, Stay bridge Suites offer you a range of home comforts. Four recent visitors to Staybridge Suites explain why they booked, what they enjoyed and what made them want to return.

Claire Metcalf

    “The concept is great, but the staff are the ones who really make it. ”she says. “It takes a lot of discipline to always be friendly, but the staff at Staybridge Suites do that. They genuinely care about you.”

Andrew Roberts

    “One of the best things is having my own kitchen. I often end up working late and I don't fancy eating in a restaurant on my own, so cooking for myself is a big drawcard. ”

    “The main thing for me is being able to cook and have my own little flat. The staff are amazing. It is great to be recognized by them, ”he says.

Pauline Robinson

    “What I love about it is the way that you are treated by the staff,” she says. “Some of the staff have been there all that time and they do look after you well. As a woman staying on my own, it is reassuring that they look out for you, and recently when I was poorly they even brought things I needed to my room. ”

Ryan Ruckledge

    “The fully-equipped kitchen is great. I always have a one-bed apartment so I have a separate kitchen and dining room and I'm able to relax and cook some meals. Eating out can feel a bit much when you do it day in and day out—it makes you hate what you do—and I don't want that.

    When John was growing up, other kids felt sorry for him. His parents always had him weeding the garden, carrying out the garbage and delivering newspapers. But when John reached adulthood, he was better off than his childhood playmates. He had more job satisfaction, a better marriage and was healthier. Most of all, he was happier. Far happier.

    These are the findings of a 40-year study that followed the lives of 456 teenage boys from Boston. The study showed that those who had worked as boys enjoyed happier and more productive lives than those who had not. "Boys who worked in the home or community gained competence（能力）and came to feel they were worthwhile members of society, " said George Vaillant, the psychologist（心理学家）who made the discovery. "And because they felt good about themselves, others felt good about them."

    Vaillant's study followed these males in great detail. Interviews were repeated at ages 25, 31and 47. Under Vaillant, the researchers compared the men's mental-health scores with their boyhood-activity scores. Points were awarded for part-time jobs, housework, effort in school, and ability to deal with problems.

    The link between what the men had done as boys and how they turned out as adults was surprisingly sharp. Those who had done the most boyhood activities were twice as likely to have warm relations with a wide variety of people, five times as likely to be well paid and 16 times less likely to have been unemployed. The researchers also found that IQ and family social and economic class made no real difference in how the boys turned out.

    Working—at any age—is important. Childhood activities help a child develop responsibility, independence, confidence and competence—the underpinnings（基础）of emotional health. They also help him understand that people must cooperate and work toward common goals. The most competent adults are those who know how to do this. Yet work isn't everything. As Tolstoy once said, "One can live magnificently in this world if one knows how to work and how to love, to work for the person one loves and to love one's work."

    In the US and Britain, the slogan around colleges was "Save water. Shower with a friend." Now, Wuhan University has come up with another system for the campus bathhouse. It charges students for the amount of time in a shower. Before entering the bathhouse, students pay for the amount of time they want in the shower with cash or their student ID card. The clock starts ticking the minute the tape is turned on. It pauses when a button is pressed for soap. An integrated circuit (IC) card reader at each tap shows the time. No money, no water. The benefits of the new system can be seen with the old system, which charged 1 yuan for each person regardless of time in the shower. The university used about 320 tones of water daily under the old system, but only 160 tons now.

    Many students use the new system but opinions on it are divided. Some students say it is bad because bathing had become a sort of race. Many people using it for the first time are not sure how long they need to shower. Some might be embarrassed if their time is up and they're still covered in soap. They have to ask the bathhouse worker to help them buy extra time.

    "It's a flaw in the system that you can not buy extra time on the ID card," said Ren, a freshman in Wuhan University. The university is also considering some students' suggestions that they be allowed to pay after they've finished the shower. Not surprisingly, some are complaining about losing the hour shower. But many students say the move helps them develop a water-saving sense.

    Without the time limits, most students tended to shower for 30 to an hour in the bathhouse.

    Some even used the hot water to wash their clothes. "In my experience, 10-20 minutes is enough," said Dai Zhihua, a third-year student who usually takes 8 minutes.

    A similar system has been installed in other universities. Shanghai Normal University introduced it at its Fengxiang Campus in September. The bathing fee there is 0.2 yuan per minute. One male student responded by setting a record with a two-minute shower.

    Cli-Fi refers to "climate fiction"; it is a term invented by journalist Dan Bloom. These are fictional books that somehow or someway bring real climate change science to the reader. What is really interesting is that Cli-Fi books often present real science in a believable way. They become fun teaching tools. There are some really well known authors such as Paolo Bacigalupi and Margaret Atwood. A list of other candidate Cli-Fi novels was provided by Sarah Holding in the Guardian.

    What makes a Cli-Fi novel good? In my opinion, it has to have some real science in it. And it has to get the science right. Second, it has to be fun to read. When done correctly, Cli-Fi can connect people to their world; it can help us understand what future climate may be like, or what current climate effects are.

    One thing that is hard to imagine is the future. What will the world be like decades from now when Earth temperatures have continued to rise? What will agriculture be like? What will coastal communities be like? It is also hard to imagine what living a subsistence agriculture life is like, today. What happens to lives and communities when the rains change, or don't come at all? What would that world look like?

    One recent example of Cli-Fi literature is South Pole Station by Ashley Shelby. In this book we follow Cooper Gosling, who is traveling to a research location on Antarctica to create paintings. Yes, an artist is sent to live with researchers and crew ­ with funding from the National Science Foundation. After arriving at the South Pole, Cooper has to become acquainted with the strange social system that exists there. Ashley writes the book in such a way that you actually feel you are huddled(拥挤) in the cold with her and her co-workers.