Decision—thinking is not unlike poker—it often matters not only what you think, but also what others think you think what you think they think you think. The mental process(过程) is similar. Naturally, this card game has often been of considerable interest to people who are, by any standards, good thinkers.

    The great mathematician John von Neumann was one of the founders of game theory. In particular, he showed that all games fall into two classes; there are what he called games of 'perfect information', games like chess where the players can't hide anything or play tricks; they don't win by chance, but by means of logic and skills. Then there are games of 'imperfect information', like poker, in which it is impossible to know in advance that one course of action is better than another.

    One mistaken idea about business is that it can be treated as a game of perfect information. Quite the reverse Business, life itself are games which we must normally play with very imperfect information. Business decisions are often made with many unknown and unknowable factors(因素), best poker players. But few business people find it comfortable to admit that they are taking a chance, and many still prefer to believe that they are playing chess, not poker.

    Ireland has had a very difficult history. The problems started in the 16th century when English ruler tried to conquer(征服) Ireland. For hundreds of years, the Irish people fought against the English. Finally, in 1921, the British government was forced to give independence to the south of Ireland. The result in that today there are two “Irelands”. Northern Ireland, in the north, is part of the United Kingdom. The Republic of Ireland, in the south is an independent country.

    In the 1840s the main crop, was affected by disease and about 750,000 people died of hunger. This, and a shortage(短缺) of work, forced many people to leave Ireland and live in the USA, the UK, Australia and Canada. As a result of these problems, the population fell from 8.2 million in 1841 to 6.6 million in 1851.

    For many years, the majority of Irish people earned their living as farmers. Today, many people will work on the land but more and more people are moving to the cities to work in factories and offices. Life in the cities is very different from life in the countryside, where things move at a quieter and slower pace.

    The Irish are famous for being warm-hearted and friendly. Oscar Wilde, a famous Irish writer, once said that the Irish were “the greatest talkers since the Creeks”. Since independence, Ireland has revived(复兴) its own culture of music, language, literature and singing. Different areas have different styles of old Irish songs which are sung without instruments. Other kinds of Irish music use many different instruments such as the violin, whistles, etc.

    Today, I had the good fortune to join the students from East Silver Spring Elementary School in Maryland as they walked and biked to school in celebration of International Walk to School Day. I want to thank Principal Morrow and the entire ESS community for welcoming me so enthusiastically.

    Walk to School Day is a great opportunity for me to spend time with parents, kids, and teachers and to present our Safe Routes to School program and the First Lady Michelle Obama's Let's Move initiative（倡议）.

    As a father, grandfather and former schoolteacher, I know how important it is that we provide students with safe choice to get to school while promoting exercise and healthy lifestyles. That's why I've embraced the Safe Routes to School program so wholeheartedly since I became Secretary of Transportation.

    You know, we're looking at an increasingly sedentary（久坐的）generation of children. One out of every three kids in America is now overweight. And I admire the First Lady's effort to end this within a generation. Safe Routes to School is a natural partner for Let's Move. For more than 10 years, Safe Routes to School has been making it easier for students to walk and bike from home to school. And ESS, where I walked today, is one of the earliest schools to participate.

    We know this program has been enormously effective because of the steady increase in the number of kids walking or biking to school. And as we made our way down the street this morning I was reminded yet again of this program's extraordinary work.

    Look, walking and biking to school is good for students' health. It's good for the environment. And it's good for the entire community's quality of life.

Everybody wins when kids take Safe Routes to School.

    Pakistan should be everyone's tourist destination for 2018, but what if you already live there? Then perhaps you should consider visiting these five must-visit places for this year.

    Lake Saiful Muluk

    At an altitude of 3, 224m, surrounded by snowy mountains, the lake rewards those that make the three-hour uphill walk from Naran. You will find the pathway just above the free market, but the best choice is to get a jeep and share the costs with some other tourists; expect to pay about 700 rupees, worth it to view this natural beauty.

    Deosai National Park

    As another high point in Pakistan, it has an average altitude of 4,114m－the Deosai Plains are one of the highest plateaus (高原) in the world. If you make it to the park, you expect to find rich plants and wild animals. The breathtaking scenery on show at the plains is enough to make 2018 a memorable year.

    Naltar Valley

    Accessible via a 2.5-hour drive from Gilgit, well worth visiting. Covered with pine trees and other plants, it has a dreamlike feel about it. Various colors all year around make you fall in love.

    Shangrila Resort

    Right in the north of Pakistan in the central valley of Gilgit Baltistan. Locals call this a paradise (乐园), and that's what it feels like. No visit is complete without checking out the restaurant which is built in the structure of an aircraft.

    Rama Meadow (牧场)

    Doesn't feel like Pakistan at all, more like somewhere in Minnesota. Watch the sheep and cows feeding while clear water flows in streams from high in the mountains. Against Chongra's ice-covered peak, this little meadow is a piece of art.

    One of my favorite hobbies is exchanging old-fashioned, paper-with-a-stamp-on-it postcards with random strangers around the world.

    The Postcrossing Project was created by Paulo Magalhaes in 2005. He liked getting mails—especially postcards. He thought others did, too—but how could he connect with them? That's when he came up with the idea of an online platform (postcrossing.com): There, postcard lovers like me can sign up to send a postcard to someone who has registered online, and receive a postcard in return.

    Along with a randomly selected address, participants get a unique code to put on the postcard. When the postcard arrives, the recipient registers that code with the site, which then causes the sender's address to be given to another postcrosser in turn. In practice, this means that for nearly every postcard I send (a few get lost in the mail) I get one back. And since I never know who will send me a card or where in the world they live, every trip to the mailbox holds the potential for a wonderful surprise.

    Privacy-conscious Americans might worry about sharing their address with strangers overseas. But postcrossers are friendly, polite, respectful folks—in more than 450 cards exchanged, I've yet to have a bad experience.

    On days when the international news is depressing, postcrossing is my comfort. There's nothing like getting a card from a child in China just learning to write in English, or a grandmother in Belarus describing her most recent gardening success to remind me that we truly are members of one global family, far more similar than we are different.

    It seems like such a small thing to send out a postcard. But as travel and communication technology continue to shrink the world, it's important to remember that it isn't just for diplomats and politicians to represent our country anymore. All of us have the power—and perhaps the responsibility—to be ambassadors, to show the best of your country to the world.

    And it's good to know that what you need to accomplish this is not necessarily complicated or expensive. It can be as simple as a postcard.