Decision—thinking is not unlike poker—it often matters not only what you think, but also what others think you think what you think they think you think. The mental process(过程) is similar. Naturally, this card game has often been of considerable interest to people who are, by any standards, good thinkers.

    The great mathematician John von Neumann was one of the founders of game theory. In particular, he showed that all games fall into two classes; there are what he called games of 'perfect information', games like chess where the players can't hide anything or play tricks; they don't win by chance, but by means of logic and skills. Then there are games of 'imperfect information', like poker, in which it is impossible to know in advance that one course of action is better than another.

    One mistaken idea about business is that it can be treated as a game of perfect information. Quite the reverse Business, life itself are games which we must normally play with very imperfect information. Business decisions are often made with many unknown and unknowable factors(因素), best poker players. But few business people find it comfortable to admit that they are taking a chance, and many still prefer to believe that they are playing chess, not poker.

    Pretty much anyone can book a trip, but not everyone can plan an ultimate adventure that's affordable, accommodating, and fun for everyone in your group. At Tripslnsider.com, we aim to provide you with the best insider secrets in the travel business and a state-of-the-art travel comparison tool to make planning easier than ever.

    Here are some insider tips that we'd like to share with you.

    We hope that you found the tips on this page helpful and can put them to use on your next vacation. Whether you plan to fly, drive, or cruise, become an expert trip planner by using our travel comparison tool for all your transportation and hotel needs. Please visit us again and sign up for our newsletter (简报) to keep getting the best deals and money-saving tips.

    Someone has put forward a dream home which is so advanced that its kitchen can suggest what to make with certain things. Also, a Microsoft home doesn't just warn you when you're out of milk—it can send you a fresh gallon.

    But are these innovations just magic, or are they really coming soon to a neighborhood near you? To find out, US News asked some experts to get their opinions about the home of the not-so-distant future. Here's a look at the innovations.

    The housing boom was marked by mass-produced buildings filled with units which look the same. The coming years, however, will give way to a personalized approach to home construction, with houses as more of an instrument of self-expression. "The successful builders will be the ones that figure out how to change their production model enough to make the buyers feel like they are really getting something that is designed for them, not just a model," says Kermit Baker, the chief economist at the American Institute of Architects.

    Future homes will probably shrink. "We will be building smaller but smarter houses," says Ed McMahon, a senior resident fellow at the Urban Land Institute. "Instead of having a room for just one use, consumers will demand homes that make better use of space," says Susanka, whose best-selling book, The Not So Big House, has become increasingly influential in home design. Seldom-used quarters, such as dining and living rooms, will be replaced with space that can serve both functions. "The goal of his 'right-size' home is to fit its owners like a specially cut suit rather than a jacket you buy in a store," says Susanka.

    Turning the lights out or wearing a blindfold while eating could be a quick way to lose weight, according to scientists. The simple trick works because it stops diners eating for pleasure rather than for calories. It also triggers (引发) a part of the brain that is worried that unseen food may go bad.

    An experiment by the University of Konstanz, in Germany, found that people who were blindfolded consumed nine percent fewer calories before they felt full, compared to those who could see. They also vastly overestimated how much they had eaten because they could not see how much was left on the plate. Blindfolded volunteers estimated(估计) they had eaten 88 percent more than they actually had.

    Scientists believe that not seeing food on the table also allows the body to know when it is full in real time rather than remembering past experiences where it might have taken a full plate to feel full.

    In the experiment, 50 people were blindfolded and 40 were allowed to see their food. All were told not to eat within two hours of the experiment. They were then given three 95g bowls of chocolate ice cream and invited to eat for 15 minutes. Their bowls were taken away and the remaining ice-cream weighed, while the participants were quizzed on how much they thought they had eaten.

    On average the group who could see ate 116g while the blindfolded groups ate 105g. However, the blindfolded group believed they had eaten 197g while compared with 159g for the non-blind volunteers. They were also asked how pleasant the ice-cream tasted and the blindfolded group rated lower than those who could see.

    “The experienced pleasure of eating was significantly lower in the blindfolded group. Not seeing the food might have decreased the appetite. Sight plays an important role in the eating experience and in the overall dining experience.”

    Previous studies have shown that the visual influence of food plays a large part in the taste. While restaurants that allow diners to eat in the dark state that it triggers other senses, in fact eating in darkness is likely to taste far milder than usual.

    At Beaver Meadows Ranch on Red Feather Lakes, Colorado, there is a long list of outdoor winter activities for the entire family. Take a winter vacation there.

    Ice Fishing

    For $10 a day, visitors can try their hand at ice fishing. Ice fishing is available from 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. seven days a week. You will need to bring your own ice fishing equipment because it cannot be rented. You will need to have your fishing license too. For more about it, call 800-462-5870.

    Hot Chocolate & Cookies Sleigh Ride

    Passengers take a 15- to 20-minute sleigh ride through beautiful Colorado country. During the sleigh ride, you'll have the experience of stopping at an old-time cabin, warming yourself by a fire and eating cookies while drinking hot chocolate. You will need to contact them at 970-231-1955 to set up a time for your sleigh ride.

    Winter Horseback Riding

    Experience winter horseback riding while viewing the breathtaking beauty of the surrounding 840 acres where Beaver Meadows Ranch makes its home. You'll be guided on a tour by one of the expert wranglers (牧马人) when the weather permits. One-hour rides cost $35 per person and two-hour rides cost $50. For more information, contact them at 866-881-7679 to set up your horseback riding winter activity.

    Other Winter Activities Information

    For more information about Beaver Meadows Ranch, or if you'd like to book a room for an adventurous holiday, call 970-881-2450. It's not very often you can find a one-stop adventure spot full of winter activities. Take advantage of your free time this winter season and enjoy the outdoor scenery in Colorado.

    Is it wrong—either grammatically or in terms of style—to mix the simple past tense with the past perfect in one sentence? To give an example, the following seems a bit heavy and awkward to me: "There had been a time when she had been happier.' I prefer: 'There had been a time when she was happier.' Any thoughts?

—ALEX

I think the second version is the correct one—it's shorter and clearer. Rather than focusing on tenses, focus on the clean, short sentence. If something seems heavy and awkward to you, the writer—then it probably is. Always short sentences.

—DIANA

    I have constructed texts for a range of children's picture books all based on working profession: bus driver, postman, footballer, cleaner, teacher, policeman to list a few. I've listed about thirty professions so far. I thought of titling them as Mr Bus Driver, Mr Postman and so on. Would I be infringing (侵权) the Mr Men titles if I did or should I think of something else?

—RAJIV

    The Mr Men stories are based on characteristics, not on jobs—Mr Lazy, Mr Noisy, etc—so they bear no relation to your projects. However, you will come under fire from gender equality supporters—every job you list could equally be done by a woman. No teacher and few parents would find work useful if it implies that all professions are open only to men. I advise you to look at modern children's books in a library or bookshop.

—DIANA